Sunday, June 29, 2014

Will Russia React to the Islamization and Leftist Centralization of Western Europe?

-Hat tip to Gates of Vienna

In previous posts* (at bottom), I envisioned a scenario in which Western Civilization has declined to a point in which those who live in Western nations live and think in a manner that is little different  from peoples of East Asian nations. In the second and third of the three-part series, I suggested that Russia (and possibly to a lesser extent other East European nations) finally bring their potential to fruition and by doing so possibly salvage some of what is left of Western culture.

This post from Gates of Vienna has a somewhat similar approach, but the writer's scenario is not simply a West (in his case, that of Europe) that has declined, but one in which the EU, by successful importation of hordes of Muslims and the fettering (both physically and psychologically) of the descendants of  those who brought the greatest degree of freedom, prosperity, and achievement the world has ever seen, has become a full-blown belligerent to an Eastern Europe that will not do the bidding of the Western Socialists.

Some very good points were brought up in the post. In the above scenario, the US will likely have become fully under the political and societal  domination of the Left and will consequently applaud Western European efforts to start trouble. The main problem that I see with Russia at the moment is her terribly low birthrate. Perhaps more Boers and other cast-offs will take the Russians (Georgians, interestingly, are offering the same) up on their to settle in or near the lands from which Indo-European speakers originally spread (I strongly favor the North of the Black Sea school for an original IE heartland).

"Islamisation of Europe: When will Russia React?

For how much longer will Russia stand and watch while Western Europe is transformed into an Islamic dominated, nuclear-armed, EU-totalitarian entity? Since Russia is not governed by dreamy ideologues, but by political realists, one may assume that the Kremlin is coming to terms with the consequences for Russian external security of the Islamisation and ‘totalitarianisation’ of EU-West Europe. Russian strategists may be looking at the following themes in particular.

(By C. Jahn)

23 June 2014

1. The Islamisation of EU-West Europe threatens Russia

In spite of the growing opposition movements in some Western European countries such as France and England, it is to be expected that the present Islamisation policy of the Western European governments will remain unchanged. In the future, too, they will bring millions of Mohammedans to Europe, who for their part will continue their “conquest from the within” and step by step will secure for themselves a growing power and influence over policy, administration and the security forces. Particularly in Germany, with its feeble opposition, the government is advancing Islamisation with a singular aggressiveness. Even if it takes three or four decades for the Mohammedan minority to become the majority in important West European heartlands — in Belgium, Holland, large parts of France, England, Germany and Austria — the Islamic influence on the political leadership in Western Europe will have already become so strong in the short term, that Russia and the former Eastern bloc will represent the sole remaining bulwarks against the proliferation of Sharia in Europe and against the spread of the traditionally aggressive, Islamic ideology of world conquest.

An Islamised Western Europe will perforce fall into a cultural-ideological confrontation with Russia together with the rather nationalist-oriented, and in the medium term, the scarcely Islamisable states of the former East block, especially Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. It is to be feared on this account that it will be mainly Germany, being without an opposition but strongly under the influence of Islam, that will agitate against Christian Russia, but also against other countries of the former Eastern block. Merkel’s most recent tirade against Russia and the blatant hostility of the German government toward Hungary may already anticipate this future agitation and renewed front-line positioning in Europe.

Consequently in the coming decades an Islamised EU-West Europe, because of the war-readiness and battle-preparedness intrinsic to Islam, will then become militarily more offensive in its thinking and become a confrontational and potentially hostile sphere of influence to the west of Russia. This antagonistic power base in the West will constitute a geographical supplement to the hostile Islamic sphere of influence which already exists today to the south (Chechnya, Turkic states etc.). Since an EU membership is foreseeable for the recently re-Islamised and ever dangerous, nationalistic Turkey, Russia, in the not too distant future will find herself both in the west and in the south, completely trapped in a pincer movement by predominantly Islamic powers which are latently or openly hostile.

2. The EU will accelerate on its totalitarian course

The anti-democratic development of the EU will intensify in the coming years; the totalitarian trend inside the power apparatus of the EU will gain momentum. Almost all leading parties in Western Europe support a policy favouring a still more concentrated EU centralism, accompanied by democratically elected state parliaments surrendering their powers. This trend, comparable to the development of the conglomerate of states of the USSR, will ultimately result in a dictatorship of unelected bureaucrats whose power is no longer democratically legitimised at all, or only marginally so, and whose exercise of power, by analogy with the USSR, will take on absolutist features.

Since today it is already largely impossible for the Western European population to control the power of the EU leaders, this anti-democratic development of the EU, as the historical experience of all totalitarian systems has shown, will enhance the willingness inside the EU leadership circle to take political and military risks; or to state it more concretely, the threshold for military adventures will become lower, hence making the EU considerably more dangerous. The combination of these two great political trends in Western Europe, Islamisation and ‘totalitarianisation’, will form in the medium term a dangerous cocktail for the external security of Russia.

3. The EU will obtain access to armed forces and weapons

For years efforts have been underway in the EU, by means of the centralisation of national armies, to provide the Brussels bureaucrats with their own military apparatus. There is no doubt that the raising of such an EU army is only a question of time. This army will be small in the beginning; but as the overall development of the EU has always shown, it will over time fully replace the national armies. French atomic weapons will then no longer remain under the control of a democratic government, but will become directly or indirectly subject to an undemocratic, centralised bureaucracy, which will not have to justify its measures to constituents.

Consolidation of the as yet nationally fragmented military forces in Western Europe into a gigantic, combined military apparatus will represent therefore not only a completely new calibre of military potential on Russia’s western flank, but will also fundamentally change the decision-making procedures behind the unleashing of a military confrontation: — a few totalitarian leaders making rapid decisions, hence replacing elected democrats labouriously building a consensus. Both developments will lower the Western European political leadership’s threshold and raise their readiness for confrontation..........

In the coming years Western Europe will almost inevitably become poorer and more violent; and given the foreseeable ethno-territorial fragmentation, large areas will become ungovernable. Historical experience teaches that politicians in such situations, simply for reasons of self-protection, consistently yield to the temptation of externalising the internally fermenting potential for conflict by focussing on an alleged common “enemy”. Russia therefore is at risk of becoming the lightening rod for Western Europe’s economic downfall and for its growing inter-ethnic tensions.

5. When will Russia act? 

......................Since only Russia comes into question as an adversary in such a war — an Islamised Western Europe will not make war against the Arab world; and democratic Switzerland, which is being observed with growing hostility by the EU elites, constitutes no serious adversary — the question arises as to how long Russia will continue to watch this development and do nothing. From the Russian standpoint — and the Western European politicians should try to understand this standpoint — a Russian intervention into the current political and ethnic trends in Western Europe would not at all constitute “interference in the internal affairs” of EU-West Europe; rather, given the long-term geopolitical and military danger associated with these developments, it would lie directly within the immediate security interests of Russia.


Western Decline - Will The Third Rome Take the Torch? - Part 1

When I treat the topic of the decline of Western Culture and Civilization*, I hope to avoid being labeled as a fatalist. I have noted in many previous posts that Western people are not finished and that they still have a window in which they can return to that which made them great. That window is closing quickly though, and I want to present some possible outcomes in the event that our downward spiral is not soon arrested.

If the West reaches a point in which it  is no longer recognizable, I think that Russia may be the state that takes its place. China and India of course will be quite powerful and that is fine, but my thoughts are on a place in which at least some of the elements of Western Culture can be married to a related Culture.

[Added 6/5/13- I realized that I failed to note that the above supposes not only that the decline in the West is not stopped, but also that no move was made by Western peoples to leave most of the lost nations, coalesce in a nation that has a higher chance of being saved, and establish a reformed and restored Western Culture.]

Note that in the following historical notes I am generalizing very much.

The Slavic peoples were late in coming on the world stage. Like the ancient Gauls and other Celts, they did not have a sense of unity as a people or ethnic/cultural group. The Eastward movements of the Ostrogoths under Ermanaric, followed by the Westward movements of the Huns, Avars, and Magyars, were the first events that had the effect of subjugating many of the tribes and keeping them from coalescing and growing in strength. The post-classical  slave trade concentrated so much on them that the word for a slave - a cognate of Slav, made it way into several languages. Other invaders would follow; early Bulgars (A remnant Hunnic dynasty later to become fully Slav), Turkic tribes such as the Patiznaks, Khazars, and Cumans, and the longest-lived dynasties from the East - the Mongols.The Ukraine born much of the brunt of the Turkic invasions - their land was too attractive to horse and pastoral peoples who needed grazing lands and it was situated in a major avenue of approach for such peoples.

In the Medieval period, the Empire of Great Moravia was killed in its infancy by the Magyars, whose aggressions were diverted by the German king, anxious to both eliminate a rival and to prevet the  terrorizing pf his dominions. This move proved to be foolish as the invaders soon moved on to Central Europe and as far and France and Italy.

Russia first came into being as an organized state under the rule of the Varangians,  name for the Northmen (Mostly Swedes)that moved Eastward from their domains. My understanding is that the word Russia comes from the Finnish word Rus, which meant a rower, an attestation to their use of longships both on sea and in the great rivers such as the Volga. Like other European states, Russia underwent periods of unity and disunity in which principalities become independent. While Slavs that border Western Empire adopted, Catholicism, the Russians and other Slavs embraced Orthodox Christianity. This was to have a powerful effect on the development of the Slavic nations; they identified spiritually, culturally and politically with the Byzantine Empire. When Constantinople (The second Rome)later fell to the Ottomans, many in Russia were to see the Principality of Muscovy (It became the strongest Russian state) as being the heir of the Roman tradition and authority.

The Mongol invasions were to have the greatest effect of the Russian and other Slavic regions. Their cruelty was of a particularly savage nature and was applied in a wholesale manner to the peoples that resisted their domination. The Mongols lived off the tribute of the conquered peoples and vassal states of khanates. They ruled much of Russia and kept other principalities as tributary states from the early 13th century and were not finally ejected under Ivan The Terrible (meaning powerful or awesome).

With the many centuries of a frontier-state status, the people were never able to engage in acts of progress such as that which occurred in Western Europe. The nobility were set in their ways and the culture was a bit of a  mix of Slavic, Byzantine, European, and Mongol. Peter the Great (Sometimes viciously) attempted a 17th-18th century version of a Great Leap Forward, but as a middle class as strong as that of Western Europe had not yet developed in Russia, the economy did not have the ability to take off and grow on its own - it had been too centralized and directed right from the top.

This pattern did not change much until the collapse of the governments and the rule of the Bolsheviks. What decentralization and middle class growth had occurred was lost in the stagnation of a Marxist state. Seizures of lands, terrifying purges, forced collectivizations, attacks on the culture and religion, and purposely-created famines (The Ukraine again bears the brunt),  and the creation of a full-blown totalitarian police-state were to send this region into a backwards state that would last until the late 80's - early 90's. The horrific invasion by Hitler's Germany not only killed many more millions, it caused immeasurable damage to the industrially and agricultural infrastructure, thus undoing even what projects the Communists had attempted. It also made Russia yet again a frontier state with all that follows such a condition - only this time the threat came from Western Europe.

I will do Part 2 tomorrow-

* I prefer to differentiate between "Culture" and "Civilization" in the manner of German writers. To explain this approach as shortly (And probably as poorly) as possible, a society reaches the point of civilization when a culture has effectively given its all. The people in general have lost their virtue, desire to grow, intellectual and marshal vigor, and creative (Particularly in art and music) capacity. The shell of the Culture is maintained as a sort of a facade, and the people congregate in urban areas, where they start to become enervated - concentrating more on personal advancement and conspicuous consumption rather than living in and improving the Culture that was bequeathed to them.


Western Decline - Will The Third Rome Take the Torch? Part 2

What I wrote last night would no doubt be considered way too much by some, way too little by others, and way too generalized by the remaining third.

My point in starting with a brief background was to illustrate that the Slavic peoples, particularly those in the East, have long been held back from reaching their full potential as leading powers. Russia and the Ukraine's plight have already been noted. Western and Southern Slavs had to contend with foreign interference and domination from German and Ottoman powers and decades of Marxist rule, so they too were prevented from taking their place as innovators and leaders.

The main advantage of the Slavic countries in our era is that they still mostly enjoy a relatively homogeneous cultural base. Unlike the Western nations, their leaders did not go about bringing in near the amounts of immigrants from the Muslim or Latin American world. Consequently, their electorates, while certainly not always of the same mind, still have a sense of a common identity; a crucial factor in creating a vigorous and stable Republic or Democracy. In religion too the Slavic nations have greater homogeneity than the West; Catholic regions are still mostly so, and are those that are Orthodox have the benefit of a over a thousand years of  their Christian beliefs and traditions.

There has also been some good news with population growth:

Although he is raked over the coals for requiring that groups from other nations working in Russia register as foreign agents, Putin must feel that he has no other option. Hordes of all sorts of Evangelical and Fundamentalist organizations have descended on the Slavic peoples and relentlessly engaged in "sheep stealing" - the concentration of seeking converts not from the irreligious, but largely from practicing Orthodox Christians. As I noted in the recent post on the Evangelical factor in the decline of cultures, those who embrace this quite modern style of Christianity - disingenuously presented as one from the First and Second Century AD, quickly lose their taste for all aspects of their culture that do not meet with the approval of one's local pastor. When we are looking at a people who have such a rich heritage and tradition, a lot, tragically,  winds up being kicked to the curb as the Evangelical mindset becomes established. Few things make my heart sink faster and lower than to hear a friend tell me that his Ukrainian wife's family is, for example, Pentecostal.

As the West moves steadily towards its softer but much filthier and morally bankrupt style of Socialism, the people in Slavic countries can say  that they have "been there, done that". Even with the massive injections of foreign aid (Thanks to the banking establishment), the Marxists could never create a system that could compete with a system that mandates competition. When you have no real ownership over your work, you tend to just go through the motions until quitting time arrives. I am convinced that, when Western leftists assure us that "It just hasn't been done right yet", what they mean is that Socialism will work once the economic systems of the West have been removed from the board. If you take away the most effective players, anyone can win a spot on the team. I believe that the the threat of a restored Leftist system in any of the former Warsaw Pact nations is remote.

Russia is rich in natural resources. She has a culturally homogeneous people that has a great history but they have yet to truly make their mark. Much of the old industrial base from the USSR has no need to be updated, so it can be scrapped. This gives all of the Slavic nations a great advantage as they can start anew and in time challenge even China and other industrialized nations. Unlike the US, Russia has dropped the pointless and expensive military endeavors that were a big part of the Cold War.  As I noted in previous posts, Russia even has the opportunity to reach out to provide security and some order to the Christians of the Near and Middle East.

A country long hidden under the rule of  nomadic dynasties and Marxism, Russia has the ability to become what Germany is to the EU, only without the intentionally self-destructive mass immigration and Leftist propaganda in the schools. The Slavic world has a lot of open space. In the event that she does become open to immigration, Russia and the other Slavic nations have room for those who would rather leave the sinking ship that is the West. Russia has been a place in which cultures merge. I cannot rule out the possibility that, maybe a century from now, enough Westerners who are determined to live freely will seek to make a new home for their descendants - one that is likely to grow and avoid Leftist stagnation for many generations.

Many ancient and Classical works made their way to the West in the last decades of the Byzantine Empire. These contributed greatly to the revival of learning in the West. Those who saw the end coming could not bear to have these priceless treasures destroyed by the Ottomans. Like the farsighted Byzantines, many Westerners will - if they cannot save their own nations or culture, gather what they can so that the literature , arts, music, political theory, ingenuity and work ethic, have a place in which they can be preserved.

-and I hope, continue to be taught.

No comments:

Post a Comment